Capability-backed strategic autonomy and Vietnam’s hedging amid U.S.-China rivalry

As U.S.-China rivalry increasingly operates through trade rules, supply chains, technology controls, energy systems, data governance and maritime pressure, Vietnam’s strategic flexibility depends on more than diplomatic positioning. This article asks how Vietnam can preserve viable policy alternatives without formal alignment. Using a single-case design, policy-document analysis, secondary trade data and theoretically informed documentary analysis, it distinguishes exposure from vulnerability and develops the concept of capability-backed strategic autonomy. The analysis identifies dual asymmetric dependence: the U.S. is pivotal for export demand and access to advanced technology networks, whereas China is central to production inputs, logistics, geographic stability and maritime risk. Hedging remains an active and rational strategy, but its durability depends on domestic firms, technological absorption, energy and infrastructure resilience, maritime capacity and cross-agency coordination. Strategic autonomy is therefore best evaluated as policy-option.