The Strategic Choices of Secondary States: the Philippines and Vietnam under the Shadow of U.S.–China Rivalry

This article examines the strategic choices of secondary states in East Asia, focusing on the Philippines and Vietnam amid the intensifying rivalry between the U.S. and China. The core objective is to investigate how these states navigate Great Power Competition to maximize their self-interests. Using a game-theoretical framework, it models three strategic options: alignment with the U.S., alignment with China, and hedging. The analysis highlights the trade-offs between economic benefits and security guarantees under asymmetric interdependence. Through comparative case studies since 2016, the study finds that both states adopt hedging strategies, engaging economically with China while maintaining security ties with the U.S., to avoid overdependence and secure stable payoffs. It also explores how China’s participation in initiatives like BRICS enhances its appeal to secondary states and reshapes their strategic calculations. By integrating these analyses, the study contributes to understanding how secondary states assert agency in an increasingly multipolar world.