Rice Export and Its Effect on Gross Domestic Product in Nigeria: Growth 2000 - 2023

This study examined the relationship between rice exports, exchange rate and GDP growth in Nigeria using annual time-series data covering the period 2000–2023. The study employed trend analysis, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) dynamic regression model, and pairwise Granger causality tests to examine the relationship among rice exports, exchange rate and GDP growth. Unit root tests using the Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) procedure showed that GDP growth, exchange rate and rice exports were stationary at level, indicating that all variables were integrated of order zero, I(0). Trend analysis showed that the exchange rate exhibited a significant upward trend, whereas GDP growth displayed a significant negative trend over the study period. Rice exports exhibited a positive but statistically insignificant linear trend. The OLS results showed that the exchange rate had a positive and statistically significant association with GDP growth at the 10% level, while rice exports had a positive but statistically insignificant association with GDP growth. The ARDL dynamic regression results showed that lagged GDP growth was positive and statistically significant at the 1% level, indicating persistence in GDP growth. The exchange rate also had a positive association with GDP growth and was statistically significant at the 10% level, whereas rice exports remained statistically insignificant. The pairwise Granger causality test provided weak evidence that the exchange rate Granger-predicts GDP growth at the 10% level, while no evidence of Granger-predictive causality was found between rice exports and GDP growth. The findings indicate that rice exports had not established a statistically significant relationship with Nigeria's GDP growth during the study period. The study therefore highlights the importance of strengthening rice productivity, export competitiveness and value-chain development to increase the potential contribution of rice exports to economic growth.