Pengaruh Harga Emas Dunia, Kurs Rupiah, Dan Volume Perdagangan Terhadap Return Saham Pt Merdeka Copper Gold TBK

This study aims to examine the effect of world gold prices, the rupiah exchange rate, and trading volume on the stock return of PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk. The background of this study is based on the inconsistency between the increasing trend of world gold prices during the 2020–2024 period and the fluctuating movement of MDKA stock prices. This research applies a quantitative approach with a causal associative research design. The data used in this study are secondary data in the form of monthly time series data from January 2020 to December 2024, obtained from capital market data sources, world gold commodity price data, and rupiah exchange rate data against the United States dollar. The sampling technique used is purposive sampling, with 59 effective observations after calculating stock returns. The data analysis technique was carried out using multiple linear regression with EViews 14, through several stages, including descriptive statistics, stationarity test, classical assumption test, partial test, simultaneous test, and coefficient of determination. The results show that world gold prices have a positive and significant effect on MDKA stock returns, with a probability value of 0.0056. The rupiah exchange rate has a negative and significant effect on MDKA stock returns, with a probability value of 0.0491. Trading volume has a positive and significant effect on MDKA stock returns, with a probability value of 0.0357. Simultaneously, world gold prices, the rupiah exchange rate, and trading volume have a significant effect on the stock return of PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk, with a Prob(F-statistic) value of 0.001711. The Adjusted R-Squared value of 0.197101 indicates that the three independent variables are able to explain 19.71% of the variation in stock returns, while the remaining 80.29% is influenced by other variables outside the research model. These findings indicate that MDKA stock returns are not only influenced by global commodity factors, but also by exchange rate movements and stock trading activities in the capital market.