Global burden of chronic kidney disease attributable to hypertension due to high body mass index: projections to 2050

Figures

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  Figure 1.. Overall study workflow for estimating and projecting the global burden of HTN-related CKD attributable to high BMI. The workflow covers data extraction from GBD 2021, temporal trend analysis using EAPC, decomposition analysis, health inequality analysis, and BAPC projections to 2050. Abbreviations: HTN, hypertension; CKD, chronic kidney disease; BMI, body mass index; GBD, Global Burden of Disease; EAPC, estimated annual percentage change; BAPC, Bayesian age–period–cohort.

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  Figure 2.. Global burden of HTN-related CKD attributable to high BMI by sex, 1990–2021. (A) Death counts and ASMR. (B) DALYs and ASDR. Bars show counts on the left axes, and lines show age-standardized rates on the right axes. Rates are expressed per 100,000 population. Vertical error bars show 95% UIs for the counts from GBD 2021. Abbreviations: HTN, hypertension; CKD, chronic kidney disease; BMI, body mass index; ASMR, age-standardized mortality rate; ASDR, age-standardized disability-adjusted life-year rate; DALYs, disability-adjusted life years; GBD, Global Burden of Disease; UI, uncertainty interval.

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  Figure 3.. Age-standardized rates of HTN-related CKD attributable to high BMI by sex and SDI group, 1990–2021. ASMR is shown for (A) both sexes, (B) males, and (C) females. ASDR is shown for (D) both sexes, (E) males, and (F) females. Lines represent the high, high-middle, middle, low-middle, and low SDI groups. All rates are expressed per 100,000 population. Abbreviations: HTN, hypertension; CKD, chronic kidney disease; BMI, body mass index; SDI, sociodemographic index; ASMR, age-standardized mortality rate; ASDR, age-standardized disability-adjusted life-year rate; DALYs, disability-adjusted life years.

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  Figure 4.. Geographical distribution and temporal trends of HTN-related CKD attributable to high BMI across 204 countries and territories. (A) ASMR in 2021. (B) ASDR in 2021. (C) EAPC in ASMR from 1990 to 2021. (D) EAPC in ASDR from 1990 to 2021. ASMR and ASDR are expressed per 100,000 population; EAPC is expressed as a percentage. Abbreviations: HTN, hypertension; CKD, chronic kidney disease; BMI, body mass index; ASMR, age-standardized mortality rate; ASDR, age-standardized disability-adjusted life-year rate; DALYs, disability-adjusted life years; EAPC, estimated annual percentage change.

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  Figure 5.. Age and sex distributions of the global burden of HTN-related CKD attributable to high BMI in 2021. (A) Death counts. (B) DALYs. Horizontal bars show the burden in each age group, with females on the left and males on the right. Abbreviations: HTN, hypertension; CKD, chronic kidney disease; BMI, body mass index; DALYs, disability-adjusted life years.

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  Figure 6.. Proportions of HTN-related CKD deaths and DALYs attributable to high BMI in 2021. (A) Percentage of HTN-related CKD deaths attributable to high BMI. (B) Percentage of HTN-related CKD DALYs attributable to high BMI. Estimates are shown globally and for the 21 GBD regions. Abbreviations: HTN, hypertension; CKD, chronic kidney disease; BMI, body mass index; DALYs, disability-adjusted life years; GBD, Global Burden of Disease.

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  Figure 7.. Socioeconomic inequalities in the burden of HTN-related CKD attributable to high BMI in 1990 and 2021, both sexes. (A) Crude death rates by relative SDI rank, with fitted relationships used to estimate the SII. (B) Concentration curves for deaths. (C) Crude DALY rates by relative SDI rank, with fitted relationships used to estimate the SII. (D) Concentration curves for DALYs. In panels A and C, circles represent countries, circle size indicates population, and rates are expressed per 100,000 population. In panels B and D, cumulative fractions of deaths or DALYs are plotted against cumulative population fractions ranked by SDI; the diagonal denotes equality. Abbreviations: HTN, hypertension; CKD, chronic kidney disease; BMI, body mass index; DALYs, disability-adjusted life years; SDI, sociodemographic index; SII, slope index of inequality.

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  Figure 8.. Decomposition of changes in the burden of HTN-related CKD attributable to high BMI, 1990–2021. Contributions of population growth, population aging, and changes in age-specific rates are shown for (A) deaths by sex, (B) DALYs by sex, (C) deaths globally and by SDI group, and (D) DALYs globally and by SDI group. Bar segments represent the three components, and black dots indicate the net change. Abbreviations: HTN, hypertension; CKD, chronic kidney disease; BMI, body mass index; DALYs, disability-adjusted life years; SDI, sociodemographic index.

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  Figure 9.. Historical estimates and projections of the global burden of HTN-related CKD attributable to high BMI, 1990–2050. (A) ASMR. (B) ASDR. Historical estimates cover 1990–2021, and BAPC projections cover 2022–2050. Projected point estimates are posterior medians, and shaded bands represent 95% CIs. All rates are expressed per 100,000 population. Abbreviations: HTN, hypertension; CKD, chronic kidney disease; BMI, body mass index; ASMR, age-standardized mortality rate; ASDR, age-standardized disability-adjusted life-year rate; DALYs, disability-adjusted life years; BAPC, Bayesian age–period–cohort; CI, credible interval.