The dual geography of European labour markets: Gendered convergence and spatial polarisation across NUTS 2 regions

This study examines gendered and spatial labour-market convergence across 244 NUTS 2 regions (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics, level 2) of the present European Union (EU-27) from 1999 to 2024. It combines Phillips-Sul club convergence, conditional β-convergence models, multiple structural-break estimation, dynamic spatial Durbin models and nonparametric distributional dynamics for total, male and female employment and unemployment rates. Trend components emphasise low-frequency adjustment. Full-panel convergence is rejected for all six indicators, while conditional employment catch-up, particularly for women, coexists with persistent regional rankings. Unemployment displays more heterogeneous adjustment and widely separated club trajectories; conditional divergence within some low-unemployment clubs is distinct from the relative disadvantage of the highest-unemployment clubs. Estimated breaks describe changes in conditional relationships without identifying the effects of integration or crises. Spatial models indicate positive spatial dependence in adjustment. Female employment and unemployment exhibit lower seven-year decile-rank mobility than those of their male counterparts. Estimated density peaks remain descriptive because the dip tests do not reject the unimodality assumption. The findings reveal a dual geography of conditional employment catch-up and differentiated unemployment adjustment; they do not establish convergence in gender equality or the gender employment gap. They support place-based, gender-sensitive and spatially coordinated policy assessment, while leaving the effects of specific institutional mechanisms and interventions open to further investigation.