Trends and Patterns in Childlessness by Age, Race and Ethnicity, and Education in the United States: A Research Note

We present a Bayesian parametric model to estimate the percentage of childless U.S. women across age. There have been substantial changes to childbearing trajectories for women born in 1950-1999. The share of women who are childless has increased across most ages in younger cohorts. This increase has not yet had substantial effects on the share of women without children at age 45. Young cohorts would need to experience significant rises in births in the 30s to match earlier cohorts' low childlessness at age 45.