Uzbekistan's Economic Security under Geoeconomic Fragmentation: Key Data, External Vulnerabilities, and Diversification Outcomes

Uzbekistan has kept growing at a solid pace even as the world economy becomes more fragmented along geopolitical lines. Real GDP rose by about 7.7 percent in 2025 according to the IMF, after 6.5–6.7 percent in the previous years. Nominal GDP is now around 147 billion dollars. Unemployment dropped to roughly 4.8 percent and inflation slowed to the high single digits, ending 2025 near 7.3 percent. Reserves also improved noticeably. This paper looks at how the country managed these results while facing clear external risks: heavy reliance on gold exports, concentrated trade with China and Russia, large remittance inflows from Russia, and the usual problems of a landlocked economy. Using data from the IMF, national statistics, rating agencies and policy documents for 2023–2026, the study shows that multi-vector diplomacy and some progress in non-gold exports and foreign investment have helped. Still, the basic structure of the economy has not changed enough. The country remains exposed to shocks that geoeconomic fragmentation can easily amplify.