Problems of Improving the Financial Results of Poultry Farming Entities

The article identifies the factors that limit the financial results of poultry-farming entities in Uzbekistan, with the Republic of Karakalpakstan as the regional context, and quantifies how much each factor matters for profitability. The study combines (i) a review of the efficiency, risk and vertical-integration literature; (ii) a statistical and descriptive analysis of published sector data for 2022–2026 (production, flock size, imports, farm structure, policy measures) with a Kazakhstan benchmark; and (iii) a stochastic enterprise model of a broiler producer, estimated by Monte Carlo simulation (20,000 draws per scenario) with Welch tests, Spearman rank correlations, standardized regression, one-at-a-time sensitivity, break-even and stress analysis. The simulation parameters are calibrated, illustrative assumptions and not observed farm accounts; this is stated throughout. In 2025 the national poultry population grew by 8.7%, egg output by 6.2% and total meat output by only 2.7%, while poultry-meat imports rose 14.2%. Official targets (1 million tonnes of poultry meat, 10.5 billion eggs) were not met. In the simulation, a conventional enterprise earns a mean net margin of 3.4% with a 36.8% probability of loss. Modernization (feed conversion 2.05 → 1.75, mortality 8% → 4.5%) raises the mean margin to 12.8% (loss probability 11.5%), and adding own feed milling raises it to 16.0% (6.0%). Feed price and selling price explain almost all margin variance (standardized coefficients −0.66 and +0.65; R² = 0.99). A 20% feed-price shock pushes the conventional enterprise into a mean loss of 10.0% (75.6% probability of loss).