Negotiated influence in Europe’s enlargement periphery: local mediation of Turkish engagement in the Western Balkans

This article examines when Turkish engagement in the Western Balkans moves beyond institutional presence to produce consequential political or institutional effects after July 2016. Drawing on qualitative document analysis and an exploratory structured comparison, it distinguishes between presence, uptake, conversion, influence and durable influence. North Macedonia and Albania form the core comparison of religious-governance initiatives, while Kosovo serves as a security-pressure boundary case and Bosnia and Herzegovina as an example of institutional uptake. In North Macedonia, reported heritage-authority interventions concerning a Turkish-supported mosque restoration demonstrate bounded regulatory conversion, although effective enforcement remains uncertain. In Albania, official religious-community statements and reported governance arrangements establish domestic institutional authorisation and negotiated access without demonstrating political influence. Kosovo illustrates how compliance with Turkish security objectives can generate subsequent institutional resistance, while Bosnia and Herzegovina demonstrates local co-ownership without proven political effects. The findings show that domestic institutions play a decisive role in mediating external engagement and that participation, institutional access and political influence require distinct evidentiary thresholds. July 2016 is treated as an analytical breakpoint rather than an established historical-institutionalist critical juncture.