Scouting future user requirements for operational Earth observation: The EUMETSAT foresight mechanism

Operational Earth observation is crucial for many weather, climate and environmental value chains. However, future requirements may be quite different, with merging application domains, artificial intelligence, digital platforms, changing service-delivery models and geopolitical uncertainties all potentially reshaping the way satellite observations are used. Within this context, EUMETSAT has established a foresight mechanism to systematically scan and interpret long-term signals related to evolving user needs, emerging tools and technologies, and changing information-platform and service models. This paper presents the EUMETSAT foresight methodology as a tailored process for user-requirement scouting in support of future operational Earth observation planning, including future Phase 0 activities such as M4G (Meteosat Fourth Generation) and beyond. It describes how expert assumptions, thematic workshop analysis and cross-cutting dimensions can be combined to identify emerging observational-priority questions. First outcomes point to the relevance of an operational Earth system approach and to the need to preserve a robust operational observing backbone while increasing agility, improving timeliness, supporting AI-enabled services, and addressing persistent gaps in key compartments of the Earth system.