Institutional Trust, Inflation Expectations, and Tax Discipline: Implications for the Effectiveness of Macroeconomic Policy in Uzbekistan

This article examines whether household and business inflation expectations in Uzbekistan are rational and anchored, and through which behavioral channels limited institutional trust weakens the transmission of macroeconomic policy. Using the Central Bank of Uzbekistan's monthly expectations survey and official monetary statistics for January 2018–December 2025, the study applies Mincer–Zarnowitz tests, period-specific sensitivity regressions, Jordà local projections, Toda–Yamamoto causality tests, and an ARDL error-correction model. The results support complementing interest rate policy with trust-building communication and trust-based tax compliance instruments.