Analysing the performance of agrifood start-ups: an IV-LASSO approach

Agrifood start-ups are increasingly considered important drivers of innovation and transformation within the agrifood sector. Under-standing how start-up development can be empirically assessed is therefore highly relevant for policymakers, investors, and other stakeholders. This study examines whether conceptual development stage models can be operationalised and empirically linked to observable indicators of start-up growth. The analysis is based on a quantitative survey of 110 German agrifood start-ups. To address endogeneity concerns related to stage classification, an IV-LASSO approach combining instrumental variable selection and least ab-solute shrinkage and selection operator analysis is developed and applied. The results indicate that start-ups in later development stages employ significantly more workers than firms in earlier stages, suggesting that stage progression is associated with increasing organisational growth and resource accumulation. The findings demonstrate the empirical applicability of stage-based development models for analysing agrifood start-ups and provide a framework for assessing entrepreneurial development in emerging innovation sectors.