Enhancing Insurance Protection of Commercial Banks' Operational and Cyber Risks and an Econometric Assessment of the Impact of Banking Services Volume on Insurance Premiums

This article scientifically substantiates two new directions for strengthening insurance protection in the operations of commercial banks. First, it proposes setting the minimum threshold of the insurance sum for covering banks' operational and cyber risks through insurance institutions at 1.5-3.0% of the bank's Tier 1 capital, differentiated according to the bank's risk profile. Second, using an autoregressive distributed lag ARDL econometric model, the study determines forecast indicators of the impact of the volume of banking services on the volume of insurance premiums for the period up to 2030. According to the model, the long-run elasticity of banking services volume equals 0.88, and insurance premiums are projected to reach approximately 38 trillion soums by 2030. The proposals are supported by actuarial calculations, the Basel III approach and econometric analysis. The findings contribute to strengthening the financial stability of banks, enhancing the management of operational and cyber risks, and developing bank-insurance integration.