Development of Natural Disaster Scenario Planning Techniques- Focusing on Flowchart-based Approach -

This study proposes a flowchart-based scenario planning method to proactively prepare for unprecedented and compound disasters by visualizing potential damage patterns and cascading effects from latent societal risks. Based on a review of domestic and international studies on scenario planning and risk management, key components-hazard, exposure, and impact-were structured into causes of damage, affected targets, damage outcomes, damage types, and causal relationships. Using this framework, flowchart-type scenarios were developed for major disasters documented in government white papers, including typhoons, earthquakes, and heat waves. The proposed method represents complex disaster processes in a visual and sequential manner, enables the tracing of cascading causal relationships, and improves comparability across cases through standardized symbols. Although the current application relies on domestic literature, future integration of collective intelligence and artificial intelligence is expected to enhance systematic analysis and practical applicability, contributing to disaster response evaluation and the improvement of emergency management manuals.