Predicting the potential habitat suitability of Phloeosinus aubei Perris in China using BIOMOD2

Phloeosinus aubei Perris, a bark beetle of increasing concern in China, poses significant threats to Cupressaceae species in both natural and managed landscapes. This study used 69 spatially thinned occurrence records and 10 environmental predictors with BIOMOD2 to predict its potential habitat suitability under current and future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). The ensemble model showed robust predictive performance (The Area Under Curve was 0.917, and the True Skill Statistic was 0.813). Variable importance analysis identified the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6), mean diurnal range (Bio2), and human footprint as key drivers. Under current conditions, approximately 36.1% of China’s land area was suitable for P. aubei , with high suitability concentrated in the Yangtze River Basin, Sichuan Basin, and central-eastern provinces. Future projections indicate a 9–23% expansion of suitable habitat by the 2090s and a 350–500 km northeastward shift in the centroid of highly suitable habitat under high-emission scenarios. These findings improve understanding of climate- and human-driven range expansion in forest pests and highlight the need for adaptive monitoring and forest management strategies, particularly in northern and eastern China, where emerging suitability may threaten native Cupressaceae forests and ecosystem stability.