Food system sustainability and agricultural water-related constraints in arid Central Asia: A multidimensional country-level assessment

How agricultural water-related changes contribute to food system sustainability across contrasting agricultural systems in arid regions remains poorly quantified. Using 2000–2023 panel data for the five Central Asian countries, this study constructed a 22-indicator environmental–economic–social framework integrating the global entropy weighting method, additive index decomposition, obstacle degree analysis, and sensitivity analysis of irrigation infrastructure coverage. The regional mean Food System Sustainability Index (FSI) rose from 0.2947 to 0.3902, with the economic subsystem showing the greatest improvement. Uzbekistan recorded the largest increase, whereas Kyrgyzstan declined slightly. Four agricultural water-related indicators contributed 0.0111 index points, accounting for 11.61% of the regional FSI increase. Economic water productivity in irrigated agriculture made the largest positive contribution (+0.0182), whereas total renewable water resources per capita made the largest negative contribution (-0.0114). Their combined contribution was positive in Uzbekistan (+0.0601) but negative in Kazakhstan (-0.0315). On average, they accounted for 19.74% of the total obstacle degree, with Kazakhstan recording the highest mean share (23.00%). Alternative specifications of irrigation infrastructure coverage reversed the 2023 rankings of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan but preserved the temporal trend and broad cross-country pattern. Water-related indicators made a modest net contribution to FSI growth but represented persistent relative shortfalls within the assessment framework, with marked differences among countries. Differentiated management should prioritize drought adaptation in rainfed systems, water-withdrawal and conveyance management in irrigated oasis systems, and small-scale water infrastructure development and improved land and water productivity in mountain–valley systems.