Dual-season hotspots concentrate diagnosed agricultural water pressure in the North China Plain

Assessing agricultural water pressure requires linking water consumption to the production it supports and the environmental conditions in which it occurs. We combined remote-sensing and climate data for the North China Plain during 2020–2024 into an environmental pressure index (EPI) that integrates water consumption, precipitation deficit, low water-use efficiency, moisture stress, and temperature exposure. We then examined this pressure alongside productivity and seasonal evapotranspiration-to-precipitation ratios (ET/P). High EPI was concentrated where high spring and summer ET/P coincided: these dual-season hotspots covered 7.36% of analyzed grid-cell area but contained 82.57% of high-EPI area. High EPI occurred in both higher- and lower-productivity cropland, showing that similar pressure classifications can accompany different production contexts. Annual maps confirmed the seasonal concentration while revealing changing hotspot locations, and wheat-dominated cropland showed greater spring water imbalance. Together, these results identify the timing and production context of priority areas for management assessment. Rule-based management and climate scenarios further showed that hotspot area could fall below baseline while regional mean EPI remained elevated, with responses depending on assumed ET changes. A smaller hotspot footprint therefore did not necessarily indicate broader improvement in diagnosed pressure. The contribution of this joint diagnosis is to connect pressure concentration with seasonal timing, productivity, and regional change, providing a basis for targeted monitoring and assessment of water-saving options.