Economic Exposure Under Quebec Independence Scenarios: GDP, Employment, and Adjustment

Full sovereignty for Quebec would reshape existing commercial ties and institutional arrangements, with uncertain economic implications. Using official economic and labour-market figures for 2024 together with input-output multipliers from 2022 adjusted for price changes, this study estimates Gross Domestic Product (GDP) shortfalls and employment exposure under specified assumptions and examines alternative unemployment outcomes. Five illustrative scenarios explore reductions in trade and investment, along with composition and sourcing sensitivities, import replacement, alternative employment conversions, labour-force withdrawals, and recovery paths. Calculations and sensitivity analyses were performed using Python 3.12.8. Separately imposed 10% and 15% GDP benchmarks provide historical and author-specified stress comparisons, respectively. Aggregate annual GDP shortfalls across S1–S3 range from CAD 3.82 billion to CAD 30.07 billion, equivalent to 0.62–4.88% of baseline GDP. Under the mixed-disruption scenario, composition sensitivities reduce the aggregate shortfall from CAD 15.04 billion to CAD 12.79 billion or CAD 9.79 billion. Labour-market outcomes depend on employment definitions, displacement assumptions, and participation. At a 3% discount rate, the ten-year present value of the 10% benchmark ranges from CAD 145.40 billion under full recovery by year 5 to CAD 526.12 billion under a persistent annual shortfall. Northern scenarios distinguish jurisdictional GDP reassignment from production loss. These deterministic stress tests illustrate sensitivity to transition and adjustment assumptions; they neither predict independence outcomes nor establish sovereignty’s net economic value.