Multi-Scenario Evacuation Modeling for the Optimal Location of Primary Population Assembly Points

The purpose of the work is to prevent human losses caused by dangerous events through mathematical modelling of the evacuation process and determining the coordinates, number, and capacity of primary collection points and final centers for population evacuation, as well as rational human and material flows at different stages of their distribution. The methodology consists in a system analysis and optimal placement of units within the emergency logistics system and zoning of the dangerous territory aimed at preventing human losses and rational use of available resources in critical situations. The scientific novelty. A new approach is proposed for modelling two-stage processes of population evacuation and distribution of material resources in the regional emergency logistics system established for several possible emergency situations. The system includes population collection points, final evacuation centers, and a communication network between its units. It is assumed that the population is continuously distributed within the region. The search for optimal locations of primary population collection points is carried out considering various emergency scenarios, the availability of final population reception centers, territories, and resources. The theoretical justification of the proposed approach is based on the integration of discrete programming methods and optimal partitioning of continuous sets, as available safe locations for the population are considered a discrete set of objects, while primary collection points can be located at any accessible place. The model envisages zoning of the dangerous territory, each zone assigned to corresponding primary collection points to accelerate the evacuation process. Human flows are distributed among logistics system units, considering distance and travel time, as well as the capacity of objects under different emergency scenarios. Conclusions. It is demonstrated that the described approach formalizes the search for the optimal structure of the emergency logistics system, defining the characteristics of its units and the connections between them.