Coyote density, demography, and genetic structure across North Carolina's barrier islands

Beginning in the late 2000s, coyotes ( Canis latrans ) colonized the barrier islands of the Outer Banks of North Carolina, USA, where they depredate protected shorebird and sea turtle nests. In response, federal agencies have removed >160 coyotes across the islands, beginning at Cape Hatteras National Seashore in 2009, expanding to Cape Lookout National Seashore in 2017, and Pea Island National Wildlife Refuge in 2023. Understanding the effect these removals have on the coyote population requires estimates of population size and structure, yet neither exists for coyotes on the Outer Banks. To address this knowledge gap, we conducted a fecal‐DNA‐based study across 7 barrier islands during 3 seasons (winter 2024, summer 2024, winter 2025), completing 4 surveys per island per season to estimate abundance and demographic parameters, quantify the intensity of removals relative to that abundance, and characterize population genetic structure. We collected 383 fecal samples, successfully genotyped 247, and identified 62 unique coyote individuals (20 males:42 females). We then fit a Bayesian multistate robust design mark‐recapture model to estimate island‐specific abundance, apparent survival, recruitment, inter‐island movement, and detection probability. Seasonal density estimates ranged from 0.04–1.01 coyotes/km 2 depending on island (45–61 individuals system‐wide per season) and generally declined with island isolation. Removals were modest system‐wide, removing roughly one third of the standing population in recent years (2024–2025), but were locally concentrated, in some island‐years meeting or exceeding the entire estimated island population. Mean apparent survival did not significantly differ between islands with active predator management and islands without management, but credible intervals were wide. Microsatellite‐based analyses revealed hierarchical genetic structure ( K = 2, 3, 4), with several islands forming distinct clusters. Island clusters exhibited low genetic diversity, high genetic differentiation, and multiple island‐specific private alleles, and were composed of 1 or 2 family groups, all of which were consistent with separate, recent founder events from the mainland. Together, these results provide the first estimates of coyote density, demography, and genetic structure for the Outer Banks of North Carolina, and the population context needed to interpret the effects of removal efforts.