Ecology and management of collared doves in Puerto Rico

Collared doves ( Streptopelia spp.) are non‐native invasive species of management concern in the Americas that became firmly established in Puerto Rico by 1992. As a means of population control, a liberal hunting season (no bag limit) was established from September to November; only the 2017 season was closed because of Hurricane Maria. I simulated alternative harvest rates in a model of dove abundance to determine the harvest rate needed to suppress population numbers and thereby mitigate ecological impacts, including competition with native columbids. Using total abundance estimates from distance sampling surveys spanning April–June 1986–2025, I fit a Bayesian state‐space theta‐logistic model, obtained posterior estimates of population and management parameters, and predicted alternative total abundances for that time series under varying harvest rates ( h ). I focus on the post‐2017 time period. Total abundance estimates and realized population growth rates suggested regulation through linear negative feedback (regression slope = −0.072, SE = 0.023). Estimated total abundance (i.e., number of individuals in the 749,000‐ha survey region) increased from 45,774 (SE = 3,662) in April–June 2017 to 75,759 (SE = 14,209) in April–June 2018. Estimated total abundance reached a putative population carrying capacity (median = 63,552–74,047) in 2018. Maximum population growth rate ( r max ) was high but varied with modeled harvest rates (e.g., median = 0.736–0.960 with h ~ Uniform [0.100, 0.299], [0.300, 0.599], and [0.600, 0.899]). However, predicted total abundance in April–June 2018–2035 had a median of 21,160 with h ~ Uniform (0.600, 0.899), indicating that harvest rates >60% appeared necessary for total abundance to be effectively suppressed. Estimated harvest rate h > 0.600 and total abundance N < 25,000 may serve as initial benchmarks for population control.