Integrated Cardiovascular–Kidney–Metabolic Disease Burden in Mexico: Trends from 2000 to 2023 and Projections to 2050

Background: Cardiovascular–kidney–metabolic (CKM)‑related diseases are interconnected, yet their collective burden in Mexico remains unquantified. Objective(s): To quantify the magnitude, composition, temporal trends, geographic divergence, and projected trajectory of CKM‑related disease burden in Mexico. Methods: We analyzed Global Burden of Disease 2023 estimates of CKM‑related burden among Mexican adults aged 20 years or older; standard all‑age age‑standardized rates were used for comparisons with Latin America and the Caribbean and globally. Mutually exclusive causes were grouped into cardiovascular, kidney, type 2 diabetes, and metabolic dysfunction‑associated steatotic liver disease domains. We quantified disability‑adjusted life‑years (DALYs) during 2000–2023 and used 1990–2023 time series to project absolute burden and age‑standardized rates to 2050. Findings: CKM‑related DALYs increased from 3.82 million in 2000 to 8.71 million in 2023 (128%), and their share of all‑cause DALYs rose from 20.2% to 25.0%. In 2023, premature mortality accounted for 76.8% of the burden; cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes together accounted for 88.4%, with diabetes predominating among adults aged 40–64 years. Mexico’s age‑standardized DALY rate increased by 2.9% during 2000–2023, whereas rates declined by 16.1% in Latin America and the Caribbean and by 24.1% globally. Absolute DALYs are projected to reach 21.40 million by 2050 (95% prediction interval 19.27–23.77), while the age‑standardized rate remains broadly unchanged. Conclusions: Mexico has diverged from declining regional and global trends in age‑standardized CKM‑related burden. Persistent premature mortality, substantial diabetes burden during working age, and projected growth in absolute health loss support accelerated, coordinated public health and health‑system action across the CKM continuum.