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February 6, 2026European Heart Journal

The evolving burden of cardiovascular-kidney-liver-metabolic diseases: trends from 1990 to 2050

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Key result

Global CVD DALY rates projected to drop by 2050 as metabolic diseases rise.

Population

Global population data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study, stratified by super-regions, sex…

Design

Other

Follow-up

1990-2050 (historical and forecast)

Authors

BCB ChongNational University Heart Centre SingaporeJJJayanth JayabaskaranPreventive CardiologySNSrinithy NagarajanNational University of Singapore

Discussion

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Implication

Forecasts indicate a shifting global burden of cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic diseases by 2050, with declining CVD DALYs but rising DALYs for T2DM, CKD, and MASLD, emphasizing the need for better metabolic risk factor management.

Key Points

  • The aim is to forecast mortality and disability-adjusted life years related to cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, type 2 diabetes, and metabolic dysfunction from 2025 to 2050.
  • Analyzed historical and forecast data from the Global Burden of Disease study (1990-2050)
  • Stratified data by super-regions, sex, sociodemographic index, and age groups
  • Examined mortality and DALY rates for cardiovascular and metabolic diseases
  • Projected age-standardised DALY rates by 2050: CVD (3,215), T2DM (1,090), CKD (544), and MASLD (43) per 100,000 population
  • CVD is expected to decline in DALY rates by 31% from 2025 to 2050, while T2DM (22%), CKD (24%), and MASLD (1.5%) will increase
  • Males will generally experience higher DALY rates than females across all conditions; highest for CVD (52% higher)
  • Regions with better health systems saw the greatest decline in CVD-related DALYs, but increases in CKD, MASLD, and T2DM were noted in these areas

Study Design

Type

Observational

Multicenter

Yes

Structured PICO

P
Population
Global population data from the GBD 2021 study forecasting mortality and DALYs for CVD, CKD, T2DM, and MASLD from 1990 to 2050.
O
Outcome
Mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD), chronic kidney disease (CKD), type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD)

Forecasts indicate a shifting global burden of cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic diseases by 2050, with declining CVD DALYs but rising DALYs for T2DM, CKD, and MASLD, emphasizing the need for better metabolic risk factor management.

Cite This Study

Chong et al. (2025) conducted an observational in Cardiovascular-kidney-liver-metabolic diseases. Cardiometabolic risk factors and diseases was evaluated on Mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). By 2050, age-standardised DALY rates per 100,000 are projected to reach 3,215 for CVDs, 1,090 for T2DM, 544 for CKD, and 43 for MASLD, with CVD rates declining but metabolic diseases rising.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6985859b8f7c464f230090ddhttps://doi.org/10.1093/eurheartj/ehaf784.3463
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Also Consider

Synapse has enriched 5 closely related papers on similar clinical questions. Consider them for comparative context:

  1. 1The global cardiovascular-kidney-liver-metabolic burden from 1990 to 20232026
  2. 2Worldwide burden of metabolic risk‐related cardiovascular disease from 1990 to 2021, with projections to 2050: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 20212025 · 14 citations
  3. 3The burden of cardiovascular diseases attributable to metabolic risk factors and its change from 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis and prediction2023 · 22 citations
  4. 4Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases attributable to metabolic risks in adolescents and young adults from 1990 to 2021: A population-based study2026
  5. 5Global Burden of Cardiovascular Disease Attributable to Kidney Dysfunction, 1990–2021: A Comprehensive Analysis of Trends and Forecasts to 20502025 · 1 citations