Unveiling the heterogeneous effects of green transition drivers on sustainable development in Vietnam

Achieving sustainable development requires coordinated progress in environmental, economic, and institutional dimensions, yet the heterogeneous effects of green transition drivers remain insufficiently understood, particularly in emerging economies. This study investigates the impacts of green investment, green innovation, renewable energy consumption, and institutional quality on sustainable development in Vietnam. The dataset is based on annual observations from 2000 to 2024, which are temporally disaggregated into quarterly observations using the quadratic-match sum approach using Quantile-on-Quantile Regression and Quantile Granger causality, enabling the examination of nonlinear dependence and quantile-specific predictive relationships across different sustainability regimes. The results suggest that all four determinants positively influence sustainable development, although their effects vary remarkably across quantiles. Furthermore, the causality analysis indicates that renewable energy and green innovation possess broader predictive power for future sustainable development, whereas the predictive effects of green investment and institutional quality are concentrated within specific quantile combinations. The findings offer important policy implications for designing targeted green transition strategies tailored to different stages of sustainable development.