Impact-Attenuating Flooring Priced in Fracture Probability: A Model of Sideways Falls onto the Hip in Older Adults Living Alone

SIMULATED, NOT MEASURED. A spring-mass impact model prices compliant flooring in fracture probability for sideways falls onto the hip in older adults living alone. At 70 kg, conditional fracture probability falls from 72.9% on a rigid floor to 33.1% on a foam-underlay system and 23.2% on sprung timber. Treating only bedroom and bathroom costs $3,154-$8,285 per fracture averted over 15 years in the model, but can address at most 55% of falls; 45% occur in untreated rooms. All numbers are model outputs under stated assumptions; nothing was built, installed, trialled, or tested on a person.