The Influencing Factors and Their Mechanisms of Retirement Planning for Middle-Aged and Older Adults: Explanation of the Mediating Effect of Subjective Life Expectancy

Global population aging and delayed retirement policies make understanding retirement planning essential. Using 2020 CHARLS data ( n = 7,163; aged 45–64), this study found that only 35.3% of participants had a retirement plan (mean horizon: 8.5 years). Chronic diseases such as diabetes and memory disorders reduced retirement planning intentions by lowering subjective life expectancy (SLE). Notably, non-agricultural employment was associated with a higher likelihood of retirement planning partly through higher SLE. Although non-agricultural workers tended to anticipate earlier retirement, their higher SLE was indirectly associated with later planned retirement. SLE may also be a relevant psychological indicator of retirement planning in other aging societies, although cross-national validation is needed.