The water use paradox in China: Phenomenon, driving factors, and policy implications

Study region China. Study focus Although China’s water use (WU) has declined since 2013, national water demand diverges when accounting for virtual water (VW) embodied in international trade. This study defines real water consumption (RWC) as WU plus VW in imports minus VW in exports, quantifying China’s RWC from 1990 to 2021. We construct time-varying water-use coefficients rather than fixed coefficients and integrate them into a multiregional input–output model spanning 189 economies. We examine the divergence between RWC and WU, decompose the drivers of RWC, and assess how trade reshapes China’s water stress. New hydrological insights for the region China’s RWC increased continuously, exceeding WU by 44.30 billion m 3 in 2021; thus, WU has decoupled from economic growth solely on the production side. Around 2014, China became a net VW importer, drawing increasingly on agricultural imports from developing economies. By 2021, agriculture constituted 55.53% of total VW imports, and net imports supplied 6.96% of national water demand, mitigating water stress. The increase in RWC was driven primarily by consumption scale, which contributed 252.72% to the total change, whereas demographic growth played a secondary role and efficiency gains failed to offset consumption expansion. Consequently, China’s water security cannot be evaluated solely from withdrawals; it is increasingly tied to external agricultural suppliers, necessitating demand-side governance, supply-chain trade resilience, and efficiency enhancements.