Migration Patterns in Uzbekistan and Regional Projections to 2030

Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) gravity models are used to analyse registered arrivals in Tashkent City from 13 regions during 2015–2024 and international migrant stocks associated with Uzbekistan across 43 destination countries. Five regions accounted for 69.3% of registered arrivals. Excluding Tashkent Region weakens the association between distance and domestic migration. The inclusion of historical and border controls changes the international distance coefficient from −3.457 to 0.041. Two-step System GMM estimates for 2010–2025 indicate that higher real incomes are associated with increased internal departures, while higher unemployment is associated with increased registered permanent departures abroad. Under the baseline scenario, internal departures are projected to increase from 182.8 thousand in 2025 to 221.9 thousand in 2030, while permanent departures abroad are projected to decrease from 8.7 thousand to 6.0 thousand over the same period. These projections are conditional on economic, demographic and migration registration assumptions.