Climate Change, Agricultural Productivity and Food Security in Selected Subsaharan African Countries

Climate change poses a major threat to agricultural productivity and food security in Sub-Saharan Africa, where dependence on rain-fed agriculture and limited adaptive capacity increase vulnerability.This study examines the relationship between climate change, agricultural productivity, and food security in eight selected Sub-Saharan African countries from 1990 to 2024.Specifically, it investigates the effects of temperature and rainfall anomalies on agricultural productivity, measured by cereal yield, and examines how agricultural productivity and climatic factors influence food security, proxied by the prevalence of undernourishment.The study uses panel data obtained from the World Development Indicators, FAOSTAT, and climate databases and is anchored on Climate Change Vulnerability Theory.The Pooled Mean Group Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PMG-ARDL) technique is employed, complemented by country-specific ARDL estimations to capture heterogeneous effects.The results indicate that rainfall anomaly has a positive and statistically significant long-run effect on food insecurity, while higher cereal yield significantly reduces the prevalence of undernourishment.Temperature anomaly also influences food security outcomes, although its effects vary considerably across countries.The study concludes that climate change has significant but heterogeneous implications for agricultural productivity and food security.It recommends country-specific adaptation policies, climate-resilient technologies, irrigation investment, stronger extension services, and targeted food-security interventions.