Scenario analysis of the factors shaping the mid-rise timber construction sector in Germany, Austria and Switzerland

The construction sector faces increasing pressure to deliver large volumes of housing while reducing its environmental impact. Multi-storey timber construction (MSTC) has emerged as a promising solution due to its potential to lower greenhouse gas emissions and enable industrialized, resource-efficient building processes. Despite rapid technological progress, its market share remains comparatively low, pointing to complex systemic barriers that go beyond technical considerations. Empirically, the study applies Formative Scenario Analysis (FSA) to explore the future development and uptake of MSTC in the DACH region (Germany, Austria and Switzerland) until 2035 based on expert input from Austria. Thirteen key factors were analysed through a cross-impact matrix and translated into alternative future states, generating 177,147 potential scenarios that were evaluated through a consistency assessment. The analysis identifies policy support and standardization as important institutional drivers, while a closely interconnected cluster of cultural, organizational and knowledge-related factors forms the system’s dynamic core. Collaboration emerges as the principal integrative mechanism, whereas economic viability appears largely as an outcome of broader system dynamics. The three resulting scenarios reveal distinct bottlenecks related to collaboration, legitimacy and implementation capacity, highlighting the importance of coordinated interventions targeting networks, institutions and knowledge flows rather than technology alone.