The Impact of Rural Digital Infrastructure on New Quality Productive Forces: Spatial Heterogeneity Analysis

This study examines whether rural digital infrastructure (INF) is associated with new quality productive forces (NQP) in China. Using a provincial panel of 30 regions from 2013–2024 and two-way fixed-effects models, we find a positive and statistically significant INF–NQP association. The mechanism results are consistent with partial mediation through patent R&D and household consumption, while science and education expenditure strengthens the association. Associations appear larger in less industrialized, less urbanized, less open, and less developed regions. The spatial models indicate positive dependence, with the strongest coefficient under the economic–geographic nested matrix. The findings support differentiated rural digital policy.