Projecting the potential distribution of sea buckthorn in the Hindu Kush Himalaya under climate change using ensemble species distribution modelling

Sea Buckthorn is a multipurpose shrub valued for its nutrient-rich berries, land aggradation ability, and support to livelihoods in high-altitude regions. However, rapid environmental changes are threatening its habitats. Despite its climatic vulnerability, the impact of climate change on its habitats is poorly understood in the Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH), a region spanning across eight countries. This critical gap was addressed by a macroecological assessment of the current and projected habitat suitability of H. rhamnoides , H. salicifolia , and H. tibetana across the HKH. Using 864 occurrence records and an ensemble of five algorithms (Artificial Neural Networks, Flexible Discriminant Analysis, Generalized Linear Models, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, and Maximum Entropy), our study provides a comprehensive assessment of current and future habitat suitability for H. rhamnoides , H. salicifolia , and H. tibetana . The models performed strongly (AUCroc > 0.94; TSS > 0.76) and showed distinct climatic niches with species-specific responses to future climate change scenarios. H. salicifolia is projected to lose suitable habitat, while H. rhamnoides and H. tibetana are projected to expand under selected climatic scenarios, with the Maximum Temperature of the Warmest Month, emerging as key predictors. Habitat shifts are higher in the Chinese and Indian parts of the HKH. The findings offer important guidance for conservation planning and climate-adaptive management in the Hindu Kush Himalaya. The potential decline of H. salicifolia illustrates the need for targeted monitoring and possible assisted migration, whereas the expansion of the other species presents opportunities for ecological restoration and livelihood enhancement across the fragile HKH.