Climate-Conditioned Electricity Adequacy in Pakistan: Auditable Demand–Supply Stress-Testing

Climate change can jointly alter electricity demand and generation availability, yet these effects are often assessed separately. This study develops an audit-controlled climate-conditioned electricity adequacy framework for Pakistan by linking an FY2025 hourly climate–demand model, ERA5-Land and GFDL-ESM4 SSP3-7.0 climate information, a geolocated generation inventory, and monthly supply–demand accounting for 2031–2050. The selected physical demand model, H0_no_heating, uses a 20 ∘C cooling threshold, hour-specific cooling sensitivity, humidity, calendar controls, and six-hour thermal memory. Its leave-one-month-out diagnostics are RMSE = 1392.4 MW, MAE = 1057.9 MW, and R2=0.8725. Under the 19,986 MW central-ready quantified supply basis and a climate-only demand counterfactual, 41 of 240 months exhibit negative monthly mean-balance margins, all during June–August. July 2044 is most constrained, with supply of 18,385.5 MW, mean demand of 19,678.8 MW, and a −1293.2 MW margin. A separate 31,179 MW sensitivity asset set remains non-deficit in monthly mean balance across 12 deterministic hydro/non-hydro states. These states have no probability weights. The framework therefore provides a reproducible monthly climate stress test, not an hourly probabilistic reliability assessment, and identifies strong seasonal concentration of climate-conditioned adequacy stress.