Macro-level publication–patent linkages across income groups: Cross-country panel evidence

Type of the article: Research ArticleThe study examines macro-level publication–patent linkages across countries at different levels of economic development. Using a purposive sample of 20 high-performing countries – five from each World Bank income group – over 1990-2024, with time-varying income-group classification, the study analyzes aggregate and sectoral associations between scientific publications, patent applications, and granted patents. Pearson and Spearman correlations, fixed-effects panel regressions with lagged specifications, structural-shift indices, rank analysis, and location quotients are applied. The results show a strong positive aggregate correlation between publication activity and patent outcomes, with generally higher correlations in high-income countries and lower correlations in low-income countries. Fixed-effects estimates are positive for both patent applications and granted patents. Slope differences across income groups are not statistically significant for patent applications, whereas the granted-patent models provide evidence of lower estimated slopes for low-income countries relative to the high-income reference group, subject to the limitations of the selected sample and country-clustered inference. Sectoral correlations and fixed-effects estimates provide differentiated evidence. Computing, Electrical and Physical Technologies show positive relative associations in several income groups. Health and Biomedical Sciences show a positive correlation mainly in the high-income group, while the corresponding fixed-effects coefficients do not demonstrate a statistically significant positive association in that group. Chemistry, Materials and Chemical Processing shows no stable sectoral association, whereas Mechanical, Industrial and Energy Technologies exhibit negative relative associations in several specifications. The findings highlight heterogeneity across income groups, sectors, and temporal structures, while the institutional mechanisms underlying these differences require further research.Acknowledgments The publication was carried out as part of the framework of the long-term development plan for the research field “Social Sciences” (No. BF/25-2026), titled “Formulating a Competitive Model for Ukraine’s Economic Development: Human Capital, Financial Stability, and the Growth of Innovative Sectors Amidst Wartime Challenges and the Emergence of the Sixth Technological Paradigm”.