Reverse sanctions evasion through emerging-market intermediaries: Russian petroleum re-exports to the European Union via Georgia

This paper examines reverse sanctions evasion by analysing how Russian oil and petroleum products subject to EU and G7 restrictions are redistributed through third countries. Using Georgia as a case study, it extends sanctions evasion theory beyond the conventional Sender-to-Target paradigm by introducing a Target-to-Sender trade configuration in global energy markets. Drawing on monthly trade data for petroleum products (HS 2710) from January 2018 to June 2025, the study applies a difference-in-differences (DiD) framework to evaluate trade adjustments following the March 2022 oil sanctions. Results show that Georgia’s imports of Russian petroleum products increased significantly relative to other suppliers, indicating trade redirection towards intermediary economies. Export responses occur primarily through prices rather than quantities, with export values evolving more favorably for non-coalition destinations. The findings reveal a structural vulnerability of energy sanctions, whereby intermediary jurisdictions facilitate indirect circulation of sanctioned commodities within formally legal trade structures.