Port-LCA for maritime decarbonization: AIS-based time-resolved analysis of alternative marine fuels

This study develops an AIS-based, time-resolved Port-LCA framework to estimate port-boundary well-to-wake emissions from alternative marine fuels. The framework converts AIS-derived vessel trajectories into distance, speed, propulsion power, fuel consumption, and lifecycle emissions through Haversine-based trajectory reconstruction, speed–power relationships, SFOC curves, and fuel-specific WTT and TTW emission factors. Holt–Winters forecasting, linked to real-GDP-driven TEU demand, is then used to project port-boundary emissions to 2050. Using the Port of Busan as a case study, seven container vessels and five fuel pathways are assessed: MDO, methanol, e-methanol, ammonia, and e-ammonia. Projected vessel demand increases from approximately 543 vessels in 2025 to 819 vessels by 2050 in the central scenario, with a 2050 range of approximately 721–919 vessels. Mean WTW emission intensities range from 4056 kg CO 2 -eq/vessel-hour for e-ammonia to 23,967 kg CO 2 -eq/vessel-hour for ammonia. Fleet-composition sensitivity changes absolute emissions by approximately +15% to −20%, while fuel rankings remain stable. The results provide proof-of-concept evidence for AIS-based Port-LCA but should be interpreted as model-derived estimates rather than a fully validated Busan emissions inventory.