Tourism-Derived Revenue Dependence and Within-Year Variability Along the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor: Merchant and Visitor Evidence

Tourism-attributed revenue dependence and within-year variability were examined among sampled merchants along the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor, with visitor and product-market observations providing supporting evidence. The analysis used 240 merchant-month records from 20 merchants in 2024, 1000 visitor-survey responses, 70 matched merchant–trade product-category-month records, and a 720-observation monthly price panel covering 2020–2025. Estimated tourism-attributed merchant sales totaled CNY 2.92 million (64.80% of recorded revenue). The mean coefficient of variation (CV) for tourism-attributed monthly sales exceeded that of total monthly sales (0.369 versus 0.330; paired t(19) = 3.765, p = 0.0013). Merchant tourist share and QR-scan activity were not significantly associated with adjusted monthly sales. In the visitor survey, QR-code scanning (β = 0.667), satisfaction (β = 0.319), and product-category exposure (β = 0.229) were positively associated with stated post-visit purchase intent (all p < 0.001); expenditure and trip duration were not. Matched product-category trade associations were generally imprecise, and the nominal product-price ratio showed no significant category-adjusted monthly trend (p = 0.283). These distinct observational records describe merchant revenue dependence, within-year dispersion, and reported visitor intentions but do not identify a causal linkage to exports or long-term business resilience.