Land Expropriation and Occupational Upgrading of Rural Workers: Evidence from China

Against the backdrop of urbanisation-driven land conversion in developing economies, forced land dispossession reshapes rural livelihoods worldwide, yet how land expropriation transforms the occupational skill trajectories of rural-hukou workers remains insufficiently understood. This study investigates the causal impact of land expropriation on occupational mobility and skill upgrading among rural-registered labourers in China. Using CFPS individual panel data matched with the O*NET occupational skill database, we construct a composite skill index and apply a multi-period difference-in-differences framework. Land expropriation raises rural-hukou workers’ probability of occupational switching by 2.9 percentage points and their chance of entering higher-skill occupations by 2.5 percentage points. These positive effects exhibit notable heterogeneity across demographic groups and geographic regions. Although a subset of workers withdraws from the labour force, land expropriation fosters labour reallocation out of agriculture toward non-farm sectors and yields measurable individual and household income growth. This paper enriches scholarship on the socioeconomic impacts of land expropriation by adopting an occupational-skill perspective to evaluate the quality of employment adjustment. The findings provide robust empirical support for formulating targeted, differentiated employment support policies to facilitate inclusive occupational upgrading among land-displaced rural populations.