Disaggregating Green Growth: GGGI Sub-Indicators and Undernourishment in 107 Economies

Composite indices of green growth summarize environmental and development performance in a single number and can hide sub-indicators that move with food security in opposite directions. Using data for 107 economies over 2010–2024, we ask which components of the Green Growth Index of the Global Green Growth Institute remain associated with the prevalence of undernourishment once each country’s level of development is accounted for. Each sub-indicator is tested against undernourishment before and after controlling for income and human development; p-values are adjusted for multiple testing, and the remaining associations are re-estimated in a five-year panel that separates between-country and within-country variation. Between 92% and 94% of the variation in undernourishment is between countries. A composite built from all components except undernourishment loses its association once income is controlled for, while six components survive in at least 20 of 22 specifications. Water and sanitation, clean fuels, and universal health coverage go with less undernourishment; the disease burden from unsafe water, the urban population in slums, and the renewable energy share go with more. The last two are the most stable under continuous development controls and in a Tobit model for 163 countries. Aggregate green growth scores, we conclude, largely reflect development.