Sectoral Debt-Service Exposure and Corporate Investment Under Global Monetary Tightening: Cross-Country Local Projections and Emerging-Market Financing Benchmarks

Standard floating-rate transmission models predict that monetary tightening depresses corporate capital formation more steeply in economies entering a hiking cycle with elevated non-financial corporate debt-service ratios and reprices shorter-maturity corporate obligations faster than household mortgages. Combining harmonized quarterly institutional sector accounts and Bank for International Settlements sectoral debt-service panels through mid-2026 with an external emerging-market financing benchmark across all 20 regions of Kazakhstan, we evaluate these predictions over the 2022–2025 tightening cycle. Local projections with country and quarter fixed effects and restricted wild cluster bootstrap inference uncover no statistically distinguishable conditional contraction gradient in real non-financial corporate fixed capital formation across 2021Q4 corporate debt-service exposures: at the four-quarter horizon (N = 206 across 16 economies), the interaction per 100-basis-point quarterly policy-rate increase and one-percentage-point initial exposure is -0.0158 log percentage points (country-clustered SE = 0.1127; wild cluster bootstrap p = 0.8732; inverted bootstrap 95% confidence interval [-0.2796, 0.1940]), remaining -0.0189 (bootstrap p = 0.8412) under full-rank Japan-only seasonal indicators, with 80% minimum detectable effects of 2.59 log percentage points per cross-country standard deviation. Evaluated at mean initial exposure, household debt-service ratios rise by 0.7947 percentage points at eight quarters (bootstrap p = 0.0147; 95% bootstrap interval [0.2275, 1.2862]), whereas corporate debt-service (-0.7314, p = 0.6725) and corporate-minus-household gap (-1.5261, p = 0.4103) slopes remain statistically unresolved. In Kazakhstan's external boundary benchmark under 14.25%–18.00% policy rates, enterprise and organization own funds supply 53.17%–55.70% of fixed-capital investment against 4.01%–5.56% from bank loans, exceeding bank credit in all 60 region-period observations.