Multi-Scenario Decarbonization Pathway Analysis for Energy-Intensive Industries Based on an Integrated LEAP Framework: Evidence from Shandong Province, China

Against the backdrop of global carbon neutrality, energy-intensive industries represent the core source of carbon emissions in the industrial sector. Scientifically quantifying decarbonization pathways and evaluating the emission reduction effects of different policies are of great significance for delivering regional carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. This study proposes an integrated assessment framework based on the LEAP model, which integrates baseline accounting, scenario simulation, and emission reduction driver decomposition, incorporating both energy consumption-related and industrial process emissions. Combined with multi-source data integration to improve the reliability of emission accounting inputs, we conduct an empirical study on three typical energy-intensive sectors, namely iron and steel, cement, and chemicals, in Shandong Province, a major industrial province in China. Taking 2023 as the base year, three policy scenarios are set: the Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario, the Low-Carbon Policy Scenario (CPS), and the Net-Zero Scenario (NZS), to quantitatively evaluate the evolution trajectory of carbon emissions, sector-specific decarbonization pathways, and emission reduction contributions from 2024 to 2060. The results show that total emissions of the three sectors increased from 325.93 million tonnes in 2022 to 344.17 million tonnes in the 2023 projection base year (+5.6%), with the chemical industry remaining the largest emission source. Under the BAU scenario, emissions rise to a broad high-level plateau of approximately 371 million tonnes around 2040–2050 and decline only slightly thereafter; although a shallow peak is formed, the post-peak reduction is insufficient to support deep decarbonization. Under the CPS and NZS scenarios, emission reductions of 74.1% and 97.1% can be achieved by 2060, respectively. Energy efficiency improvement is the core short-term driving force for emission reduction, while power decarbonization and CCUS technologies are key supports for deep decarbonization in the medium and long term. This study can provide methodological reference and empirical evidence for decarbonization pathway design and policy formulation of energy-intensive industries in similar regions.