Understanding the Evolution of Dairy Goat Farming in Mediterranean Systems: Market Volatility, Climate Stresses, and the Role of CAP Subsidies

Autochthonous breed dairy goat farming plays a key socio-ecological role in Andalusia (Spain); however, census and farm numbers have declined sharply over five decades (1974–2023). This study analyzes the drivers of this trajectory by combining official census statistics with a participatory workshop to conceptualize qualitative direct causal paths. The sector experienced structural restructuring, where technical efficiency gains were offset by farm-gate price setting asymmetries and supply cost volatility, aggravated by recurring droughts and reduced forage autonomy. Common Agricultural Policy direct payments were perceived merely as short-term liquidity supports. Crucially, a lack of generational renewal—driven by rural decline, quality-of-life concerns, heavy workloads, and low social recognition—constitutes one of the main risks to sector continuity. Participant scores reflect perceived factor importance rather than direct closure metrics. To overcome vulnerability, future resilience would require transformative strategies rather than incremental adjustments, such as farm automation to improve labor conditions, enhanced forage self-sufficiency, knowledge transfer on autochthonous breeds, and local value added through short supply chains and artisanal cheesemaking.