Honey Adulteration and the Sustainability of EU Honey Markets: Evidence from Import Unit-Value Anomalies and Trade Volatility (2014–2024)

Background: Honey adulteration threatens fair competition and the long-term viability of authentic beekeeping, while universal laboratory testing of imported consignments is costly. Methods: We linked the European Union’s 2021–2022 coordinated honey controls (320 consignments, 147 suspicious) to monthly Eurostat COMEXT import data for 20 origins (2014–2024). We examined absolute unit values, origin-specific relative price anomalies and pre-campaign and campaign-period volatility using country-level Spearman rank correlations and exact permutation tests, with sensitivity analyses. Results: Absolute unit values did not distinguish origins with high and low suspicious-consignment shares. By contrast, negative origin-specific price anomalies were strongly associated with higher suspicious shares among the nine better-sampled origins (Spearman ρ = −0.783; exact p = 0.0172). The inverse ordering was complete among the six main suppliers (ρ = −1.000; exact p = 0.00278). Campaign-period volatility was not a reliable independent discriminator; pre-campaign volatility was associated with suspicion among the six main suppliers, but this exploratory result requires replication. Conclusions: Routine customs data may support inexpensive, risk-based prioritisation of laboratory checks, improving the efficiency of market surveillance and potentially protecting honest producers, consumer confidence and sustainable honey supply chains. These aggregate associations do not establish adulteration or its causes, and prospective validation is necessary before setting operational thresholds.