Rethinking protected area governance: beyond resilience toward antifragility

Protected areas are central to achieving global biodiversity conservation targets; however, their actual contribution depends on how effectively they are governed and managed. Governance is increasingly challenged by volatility stemming from rapid environmental change and land-use pressures, as well as political and socio-economic uncertainties. Using the fragile–resilient–antifragile triad, we apply an antifragility lens to seven established governance principles- legitimacy, transparency, accountability, inclusiveness, fairness, connectivity, and resilience- to examine how each may respond to and develop through stress. The resulting typology provides a diagnostic and reflective tool through which managers can identify vulnerabilities, prioritise reforms, and design governance systems that learn and strengthen through disturbance. To illustrate its practical application, we present protected area cases in which disturbance led to measurable improvements in governance. By framing antifragility as a complementary perspective that extends resilience thinking, the paper treats disturbance not only as a threat to be managed, but also as a possible driver of institutional strengthening.