Governance in Strategic Ecosystems: Preliminary Report of a Case Study in Tumaco, Colombia (2023–2025)

This report examines the governance system for marine plastic pollution in Tumaco, Colombia, a strategically important yet institutionally fragile region. Drawing on the institutional ecology of games and a mixed‐methods approach combining qualitative fieldwork with agent‐based modeling, our study analyzes the evolving governance dynamics between governmental, civil society, private, and academic actors from September 2023 to May 2025. Our preliminary findings reveal a fragmented and nascent governance system that exhibits only limited characteristics of a robust polycentric network. The system is characterized by inconsistent state engagement and is critically dependent on the proactive leadership of a resilient civil society, the influence of psycho‐affective ties, and the intervention of an external academic catalyst to facilitate collaboration. Our agent‐based simulations reinforce this diagnosis of fragility, indicating that the network's cohesion is highly vulnerable to the departure of key individuals and that strategic opportunities can paradoxically centralize the network rather than strengthen its polycentric nature. This research contributes to the study of governance in the Global South by demonstrating that in fragile contexts, the pre‐conditions for polycentricity may be absent. We argue that effective transformation requires a shift from managing a presumed polycentric system to actively building its foundations by legitimizing local actors and institutionalizing collaborative processes.