Shield or Bottleneck? Navigating ESG Sustainability Uncertainty in Global Supply Chains: Asymmetric Evidence From Developed and Developing Economies

This study investigates the dynamic impact of the ESG‐Based Sustainability Uncertainty Index (ESGUI) on the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) across five developed (USA, Germany, France, Japan, UK) and five developing economies (China, India, Brazil, Mexico, Vietnam) using monthly data from November 2002 to June 2025. To capture multi‐horizon nonlinearities and tail dependence across distribution quantiles at the individual country level, and to empirically evaluate group‐level structural heterogeneity across economic cohorts, we employ Wavelet Kernel‐Based Regularized Least Squares (WKRLS), complemented by Wavelet Quantile Regression (WQR) and Wavelet Quantile Granger Causality (WQGC), Panel Quantile Regression (PQR) with multiple breaks as complementary dual‐verification procedures. Empirical findings reveal a fundamental macro‐structural asymmetry: in developed nations, heightened sustainability uncertainty acts as a structural “bottleneck”, exhibiting a significant positive long‐term impact on supply chain pressures due to rigid compliance burdens and accumulated regulatory costs. Conversely, developing economies turn this uncertainty into an adaptive “shield”, displaying a dominant negative relationship as agile supplier diversification and nearshoring realignment alleviate logistical friction within sustainable supply chain management (SSCM). Crucially, decoupling green transition uncertainties from global logistics networks supports resilient infrastructure (SDG 9) and responsible production patterns (SDG 12). To manage this divergence, policymakers should implement transparent regulatory timelines, targeted green logistics subsidies, and AI‐driven predictive compliance strategies.