The suspension of the Indus Water Treaty and its socio-economic

The Indus Water Treaty is a well-known transboundary water-sharing agreement between 18 Pakistan and India. It ensures equitable water distribution between the two countries and plays 19 an important role in economic development and food security, especially for Pakistan as a 20 downstream riparian country. In April 2025, India suspended the Indus Water Treaty following 21 a political escalation. This study investigates the potential socio-economic and environmental 22 impacts of surface water supply disruptions in Pakistan’s irrigated agriculture during the 23 treaty’s suspension. Using a scenario-based approach, we estimate changes in site-specific 24 net profits, groundwater consumption, CO2 emissions, and social consequences. Under 25 baseline conditions, average annual net profit is estimated at 9.6 billion US$, with groundwater 26 withdrawals at 66 km3 and irrigated-related emissions of 3.67 Mt CO2. Simulated reductions in 27 surface water availability of 10-50%, representing plausible future disruptions and a rapid shift 28 toward energy‑intensive groundwater dependence, show net profit declines of up to 74%, while 29 groundwater use and CO2 emissions increase by up to 51% and 44%, respectively. The Socio-30 Economic Impact Perception Index, estimated at 3.16 on a 1–4 scale, indicates a high level of 31 perceived vulnerability among farmers, driven by uncertainty, increased production costs, and 32 reliance on energy-intensive groundwater pumping. These findings highlight that the 33 suspension of the Indus Water Treaty likely amplifies economic, environmental, and social 34 risks in Pakistan by accelerating unsustainable groundwater use. 35