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August 16, 2025Open Access

Describing long term seasonal and interannual variability of tornado frequency across the USA and Europe

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Tornado frequency analysis shows a strong correlation with high-tornado-risk conditions in the USA during spring, with an impressive r = 0.98.
In both regions, the occurrence-based metric HTR WMAX-WS700 significantly outperforms probability thresholds, particularly in the autumn and outside peak periods.
Observations from the ERA5 reanalysis dataset were compared to recorded tornado occurrences from the SPC and ESWD, enhancing predictive accuracy.
Findings highlight the need for seasonally adaptive tornado risk assessment methods to improve forecasting capabilities.

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Empirical analysis reveals tornado frequency patterns in Europe and the USA, indicating key meteorological factors.

Muhammadi et al. (2025) studied this question.

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