Modelling International Tourism, Based on Arrivals in Five Selected Mediterranean Countries

The COVID-19 pandemic, which broke out in 2019, led to strict travel restrictions worldwide, significantly affecting international tourism. Countries such as Egypt, Morocco, Albania, Tunisia, and Slovenia experienced a sharp decline in tourist arrivals, between 2019 and 2021. This study explored the relationship between international tourism arrivals and various economic factors, including total expenditure, exports, passenger transport services, CO2 emissions, and infrastructure, in these five Mediterranean nations, from 1995 to 2023. The study employed the Johansen Cointegration Test, Vector Error Correction Model and Wald Test, to evaluate both short- and long-term dynamics among these variables. Data for this research were collected from sources like the OECD, World Bank, IMF and DataStream. The findings revealed that passenger transport and CO2 emissions reported both short- and long-term equilibrium relationships with tourism. Meanwhile, exports maintained a longterm equilibrium with tourism while infrastructure recorded only a short-term relationship.